FWD BLOG: In Case of Emergency, Break The News….to “Moderates” they need to drop out to Break Bernie.

If Democrats had Ranked Choice Voting this would be much easier but Obama can fix it quick.

There is a legit concern about Bernie being the nominee right now as his movement seems hell-bent on changes that will never happen without a coup-de-tat inside the Democratic Party and Washington, DC.

He is also benefiting from representing a commited and large voting bloc that the other candidates can’t match in a caucus or a primary in his neighboring state.

But the MATH is simple: Bernie represents a minority of the democratic base.

So, if the other candidates want a “Moderate” nominee that can all be solved when they start realizing when the handwriting is on the wall that they need to drop out or risk getting a call from Barack Obama.

Because the process is so frontloaded and lacks a straightforward “Ranked Choice Voting” System we have unclear outcomes in the first 3 states — especially because 2 were low-turnout caucuses and 1 was a primary in a neighboring state of the front runner.

But my recommendation is they all play through the South Carolina Debate and the Saturday Primary on Saturday to see if they have any traction in a diverse state like the ones that will dominate on Super Tuesday.

Anyone who secures viability in the 15–20% range in South Carolina should move on but everyone else needs to drop out. My guess is that list will include Tom Steyer, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren.

If Steyer can’t build momentum in South Carolina and is still running well behind in the polls to Bloomberg next weekend then he should conclude that he has lost the “Billionaire Primary.”

If Klobuchar can’t build momentum in South Carolina she should spare herself the risk of losing her home state of Minnesota where she is only polling at 26% and concede as well.

If Warren can’t build momentum in South Carolina she should spare herself the risk of losing her home state of Massachusetts where she is already polling behind Bernie and end her campaign too.

But even though they have shown some life with some Top 2 finishes, if Biden loses South Carolina or if Pete comes in a weak 4th or 5th then they might have to consider dropping out as well.

Bloomberg has proclaimed he has a “Bye” into the next round so if it can at least become a 3–Way or 4-Way race on Super Tuesday then each candidate will probably split about the same amount of delegates and the race be an even playing field to chase the final 40% of delegates.

But if any of those candidate does poorly on Super Tuesday then they need to drop out immediately to set up a head-to-head contest.

And if the “Moderate Majority” theory is correct and the supporters of the other candidates will flock to the remaining “Not Bernie” candidates then eventually a Moderate will start winning primaries. At that point they would be in a great position to win a majority of the delegates and a legitimate choice for Super Delegates on the second ballot when they’re allowed to vote in Milwaukee.

So, my take is Bernie has hit his ceiling and it is time to match him up against a clear alternative.